Exploring the Conjunction Fallacy in Probability Judgment: Conversational Implicature or Nested Sets?
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
On the Conjunction Fallacy in Probability Judgment: New Experimental Evidence
This paper reports the results of a series of experiments designed to test whether and to what extent individuals succumb to the conjunction fallacy. Using an experimental design of Kahneman and Tversky (1983), it finds that given mild incentives, the proportion of individuals who violate the conjunction principle is significantly lower than that reported by Kahneman and Tversky. Moreover, when...
متن کاملExtensional Versus Intuitive Reasoning: The Conjunction Fallacy in Probability Judgment
Perhaps the simplest and the most basic qualitative law of probability is the conjunction rule: The probability of a conjunction, P(A&B), cannot exceed the probabilities of its constituents, P(A) and P(B), because the extension (or the possibility set) of the conjunction is included in the extension of its constituents. Judgments under uncertainty, however, are often mediated by intuitive heuri...
متن کاملProbability, Confirmation, and the Conjunction Fallacy
The conjunction fallacy has been a key topic in debates on the rationality of human reasoning and its limitations. Despite extensive inquiry, however, the attempt of providing a satisfactory account of the phenomenon has proven challenging. Here, we elaborate the suggestion (first discussed by Sides et al., 2001) that in standard conjunction problems the fallacious probability judgments experim...
متن کاملKansei Versus Extensional Reasoning: The Scientific Illusion of The Conjunction Fallacy in Probability Judgment
Introduction Subsequent to the investigations of Tversky and Kahneman (Tversky & Kahneman, 1983) it is well known that judgments under uncertainty are often mediated by intuitive heuristics that are not bound by specific scientific natural laws. For example, according to the conjunction rule a conjunction can be more representative than one of its constituents, and instances of a specific categ...
متن کاملOn the conjunction fallacy in probability judgment: New experimental evidence regarding Linda
This paper reports the results of a series of experiments designed to test whether and to what extent individuals succumb to the conjunction fallacy. Using an experimental design of Kahneman and Tversky (1983), it finds that given mild incentives, the proportion of individuals who violate the conjunction principle is significantly lower than that reported by Kahneman and Tversky. Moreover, when...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Journal of European Psychology Students
سال: 2019
ISSN: 2222-6931
DOI: 10.5334/jeps.464